Two simple models for accounting mussel contamination with diarrhoetic shellfish poisoning toxins at Aveiro lagoon: Control by rainfall and atmospheric forcing

At Aveiro lagoon (Portuguese northwest coast) bivalve contamination with diarrhoetic shellfish poisoning toxins (DSTs), okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxin-2 (DTX2), is a recurrent annual phenomenon seriously affecting seafood safety. The influence of meteorological parameters was studied to understand accumulation of DSTs in mussels, related to the blooming of the causative toxic microalgae, belonging to genus Dinophysis. mplified models were useful in predicting the accumulation of DSTs in blue mussels from this lagoon. Either the May river drainage or the rainfall accumulated from January through May could adequately predict the severity of OA accumulated from predation upon Dinophysis acuminata during June/July. In both cases a linear relationship was obtained, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 or greater. with a west direction favour coastal concentration of Dinophysis acuta in Aveiro region. Both OA and DTX2 contamination increased exponentially in September/October with the cumulative number of days with W-wind orientation in the preceding August (correlation coefficients greater than 0.92). This relationship was attributed to the quadratic effect of wind stress on surface currents. is a transitional month, when the continental runoff effect upon Dinophysis acuminata can still be observed and Dinophysis acuta advection may be promoted by westerly winds occurring in July. The frequency of periods with northerly winds in July can halt accumulation of toxins derived from Dinophysis acuta.