Predicting estuarine use patterns of juvenile fish with Generalized Linear Models

Statistical models are key for estimating fish distributions based on environmental variables, and validation is generally advocated as indispensable but seldom applied. Generalized Linear Models were applied to distributions of juvenile Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Platichthys flesus and Dicentrarchus labrax in response to environmental variables throughout Portuguese estuaries. Species-specific Delta models with two sub-models were used: Binomial (presence/absence); Gamma (density when present). Models were fitted and tested on separate data sets to estimate the accuracy and robustness of predictions. Temperature, salinity and mud content in sediment were included in most models for presence/absence; salinity and depth in most models for density (when present). In Binomial models (presence/absence), goodness-of-fit, accuracy and robustness varied concurrently among species, and fair to high accuracy and robustness were attained for all species, in models with poor to high goodness-of-fit. But in Gamma models (density when present), goodness-of-fit was not indicative of accuracy and robustness. Only for Platichthys flesus were Gamma and also coupled Delta models (density) accurate and robust, despite some moderate bias and inconsistency in predicted density. The accuracy and robustness of final density estimations were defined by the accuracy and robustness of the estimations of presence/absence and density (when present) provided by the sub-models. The mismatches between goodness-of-fit, accuracy and robustness of positive density models, as well as the difference in performance of presence/absence and density models demonstrated the importance of validation procedures in the evaluation of the value of habitat suitability models as predictive tools.