Cigarette brand loyalty and purchase patterns: An examination using US consumer panel data

This study analyzes data on cigarette purchasing using an extensive panel dataset. Major findings are: (1) cigarette purchasing in this market exhibits a reverse-J, or NBD (Negative Binomial Distribution)-like shape: many infrequent buyers and fewer frequent buyers; (2) Cigarette brands do exhibit high loyalty compared to other consumer categories, and show a trend to higher brand loyalty over time coinciding with fewer price promotions; (3) The data shows a weak double jeopardy pattern of smaller brands enjoying somewhat lower loyalty; (4) Smokers of a given brand are on average more likely to purchase another large cigarette brand than another small brand; (5) A straightforward analysis method identifies occurrences of excessive cross-brand cannibalization in the portfolio of one of the major tobacco corporations; and (6) Certain brands enjoy particular appeal among specific demographic groups. The study sheds more light on consumer behavior towards a product with addictive qualities and known harmful effects.