Dynamic analysis of the global metals flows and stocks in electricity generation technologies

The demand for energy and consequently the emissions from energy generation have been increasing in recent years at rapid rates, leading to an urgent need for cleaner technologies. Cleaner technologies, however, require scarce resources. This paper analyzes the future development of electricity generation technologies and the metals required for their components, using a multi level dynamic material flow model. The model includes ten electricity generation technologies and the most important factors determining the dynamics of their metals requirement. The analysis is carried out from 1980 through 2050, using two scenarios, termed Market First and Policy First, combined with specific scenarios for the technologies. The results show that no resource problems occur in production capacity or in the availability of resources for wind power technologies in either scenario. In contrast, each photovoltaic solar technology has a constraining metal supply in the Policy First scenario: silver for silicon based technologies, tellurium for cadmium telluride technology, indium for copper indium gallium diselenide, and germanium for amorphous silicon. The model results show that the most critical photovoltaic solar metal in terms of resource availability and production capacity is tellurium. The demand for the base metals aluminium, copper, chromium, nickel, lead, and iron needed for electricity generation technologies can be met in the two scenarios.