A novel method to estimate the affinity of HLA-A∗0201 restricted CTL epitope

A set of 70 peptides with affinity for the class I MHC HLA-A∗0201 molecule was subjected to quantitative structure–affinity relationship studies based on the SCORE function with good results (r2 = 0.6982, RMS = 0.280). Then the ‘leave-one-out’ cross-validation (LOO-CV) and an outer test set including 18 outer samples were used to validate the QSAR model. The results of the LOO-CV were q2 = 0.6188, RMS = 0.315, and the results of outer test set were r2 = 0.5633, RMS = 0.2292. All these show that the QSAR model has good predictability. Statistical analysis showed that the hydrophobic and hydrogen bond interaction played a significant role in peptide-MHC molecule binding. The study also provided useful information for structure modification of CTL epitope, and laid theoretical base for molecular design of therapeutic vaccine.