Reliability analysis of idealized tunnel support system using probability-based methods with case studies

In order to determine the overall safety of a tunnel support lining, a reliability-based approach is presented in this paper. Support elements in jointed rock tunnels are provided to control the ground movement caused by stress redistribution during the tunnel drive. Main support elements contribute to stability of the tunnel structure are recognized owing to identify various aspects of reliability and sustainability in the system. The selection of efficient support methods for rock tunneling is a key factor in order to reduce the number of problems during construction and maintain the project cost and time within the limited budget and planned schedule. This paper introduces a smart approach by which decision-makers will be able to find the overall reliability of tunnel support system before selecting the final scheme of the lining system. Due to this research focus, engineering reliability which is a branch of statistics and probability is being appropriately applied to the field and much effort has been made to use it in tunneling while investigating the reliability of the lining support system for the tunnel structure. Therefore, reliability analysis for evaluating the tunnel support performance is the main idea used in this research. Decomposition approaches are used for producing system block diagram and determining the failure probability of the whole system. Effectiveness of the proposed reliability model of tunnel lining together with the recommended approaches is examined using several case studies and the final value of reliability obtained for different designing scenarios. Considering the idea of linear correlation between safety factors and reliability parameters, the values of isolated reliabilities determined for different structural components of tunnel support system. In order to determine individual safety factors, finite element modeling is employed for different structural subsystems and the results of numerical analyses are obtained in different design scenarios. Finally, the reliability index values are obtained for the entire support structure in different design scenarios. The results of the work demonstrates that proposed reliability evaluation method of tunnel support system is effective not only for investigating the reliability of individual elements in the structure, but also for building an overall estimation about reliability performance of the entire tunnel structure.