Investigating the Marine Protected Areas most at risk of current-driven pollution in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, using a Lagrangian transport model

The possibility of current-driven propagation of contaminants released along a major fairway polluting the Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, is examined using a 3D circulation model, a Lagrangian transport model and statistics. Not surprisingly, the number of hits to the MPA decreases almost linearly with its distance from the fairway. In addition, the potential pollution released during a ship accident with the pollutants carried by currents may affect MPAs at very large distances. Typically, a fairway section approximately 125 km long (covering about 1/3 of the approximate 400-km-long gulf) may serve as a source of pollution for each MPA. The largest MPA (in the Eastern Gulf of Finland) may receive pollution from an approximately 210-km-long section (covering about 1/2 of the entire length of the gulf). This information may be useful in assisting maritime management.