Multi-Personal Communications in Bass Diffusion Model: Application to Forecasting of Development of Internet.

Possibility of application of Bass diffusion model to forecasting of development of Internet is analyzed. It is shown that a quantitative description of the dynamics of sales based on the Bass diffusion model, in certain cases (Internet, particularly) is expedient to consider the influence of communications of orders, higher than the second (multi-personal communications). In this case, the differential equation describing the dynamics of sales includes terms with the degree higher than the second. Communications of higher orders can be interpreted from the standpoint of the cultural coercion phenomenon, i.e. a combination of factors forcing members of society to consume goods or services.