Abstract :
A study was undertaken to develop forecasting model for prediction of enterotoxaemia outbreak in North-west agroclimatic zone of Tamil Nadu, India. In this study, fourteen enterotoxaemia outbreaks were identified of which nine and five by active and surveillances respectively and used. Meteorological data comprising of maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed were collected and used as the multiple predictor variables in the multiple liner regression model through Statistical Package for Social Survey (SPSS) ®15.00 for windows. A multiple liner regression model was developed which is qualitatively valid for North-west zone of Tamil Nadu. Value of dependant variable is less than or greater than one, which indicates that a remote or more chance of enterotoxaemia outbreak respectively. Monthly mean maximum temperature, monthly mean minimum temperature, monthly mean relative humidity at 8.30 hours IST, monthly mean relative humidity at and 17.00 hours IST, monthly total rainfall and monthly mean wind speed of 29.1 – 31.0°C, 19.1 – 21.0°C, 80.1 – 85.0%, 60.1 – 70.0%, 101 – 200mm and 3 – 6 km/h respectively are identified as the ideal climate for more number of enterotoxaemia outbreaks in this zone. Based on that stake holders will be advised to institute suitable prophylactic measures through media to avoid economic losses due to outbreak of enterotoxaemia.
