Simulated populations of the black salt march mosquito (Aedes taeniorhynchus) in a Florida mangrove forest

A simulation model of the population dynamics of the black salt marsh mosquito (Aedes taeniorhynchus) in a mangrove basin forest in southwestern Florida is described. This mosquito is a major pest in coastal Florida, with large populations migrating many kilometres from the breeding site. The basic model realistically simulated annual population trends and the occurrence of larval broods. Model output (adult females and sum of eggs, larvae and adult females) was most sensitive to adult survival, larval predator populations and immigration of adult females. Detailed analysis of dispersal indicated that persistence of mosquitoes was dependent upon immigration and the absence of tidal flooding and attendant larval predators. Model versions incorporating fish-mediated oviposition repellency and increased survival in young autogenous adult females led to a respective 21% decrease and 267% increase in mean adult female population. These results suggest that a model offering alternative, predator-free oviposition sites for migrating females would more realistically simulate natural populations.