A method for downscaling global climate model calculations by a statistical weather generator

A method is presented for deriving weather scenarios for studies of the impacts of possible climate change on the carbon-nitrogen dynamics in soil at places of interest. The future development of these soil processes is examined with a simulation model requiring weather data as input. The weather data are produced by a “stochastic weather generator” which is parametrised with meteorological observations. The information about possible climate change come from general circulation model (GCM) calculation results at defined grid points on the earth surface. A spatial interpolation procedure is used to combine the GCM information with the weather generation procedure by updating the generator parameters in dependence on the special moment in future.