Extinction dynamics of the helmeted honeyeater: effects of demography, stochasticity, inbreeding and spatial structure

HEAVAN is a computer-based model of the last remaining population of helmeted honeyeaters (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix). It models a population structured according to sex and breeding status, and incorporates spatial structure, environmental stochasticity, demographic stochasticity, catastrophes, and inbreeding effects. The purpose of this model is to identify options for the management of this extremely rare and endangered bird. The model predicts that there is an appreciable risk of decline within the next 50 years. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the helmeted honeyeater is vulnerable to catastrophes such as fire, and the results are particularly sensitive to estimates of the level of random fluctuations in survivorships.