Density dependent matrix model for gray wolf population projection

A Leslie matrix model was developed for a small gray wolf (Canis lupus) population recolonizing an area with abundant resources and uncontrolled by humans. The model was modified to describe population growth in a limited environment using a discrete form of the logistic equation. The density dependent Leslie matrix model was applied to investigate gray wolf population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Estimates from the density dependent matrix model were compared with published winter count estimates from the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. The gray wolf population in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan was projected to reach a total of 929 wolves by the year 2012 with a 95% confidence interval of 662 to 1153 wolves.