The Relation between Macroeconomic Variables and the Firm Risk Forecasting (Case Study of Tehran Stock Exchange)

One of the most important economic sectors, is the capital market that no secret on nobody. Capital markets are closely related of the economic structure of the country and Strengths and weaknesses that can be indicative of the countryʹs economic situation. Development of capital markets can play an important role in the growth of national income and general welfare of community. In this research, were analyzed the usefulness of macroeconomic variables (Currency rates, inflation rates, interest rates and relative price changes oil) in predicting companies risk in the years 2005-2012 and ratio of book value to market value(BV/MV), was selected for alternative measures of companies risk. Results show that the relative changes in macroeconomic variables are significantly positively correlated with changes in firm risk measures. Although the relative changes in Tehran Stock Exchange measures are significant negatively correlate with changes in firm risk measures.