Single-case probabilities and content-neutral norms: a reply to Gigerenzer

Gigerenzer (2001) argues that (a) statements about single-case probabilities are problematic because they specify no reference class, and that (b) norms should not be applied to specific situations in a ‘content-blind’ way. In reply I argue that (a) statements about single-case probabilities make sense and are unambiguous despite specifying no reference class, and that (b) although Gigerenzer is right that the application of norms to specific situations should take into account the content of the situations and thus should not be content-blind, Gigerenzer has not undermined the appropriateness of probabilistic and other norms which purport to have force in every situation and are in this sense content-neutral.