A model of phycotoxin release by cyanobacterial cells

The paper presents a semi-empirical mathematical model for phycotoxin release into water during the development of the freshwater cyanobacterial population. The data obtained from field observation and laboratory experiments demonstrate correlation between the development of cell population and phycotoxin concentration in water (National Rivers Authority, 1990. Toxic Blue-Green Algae. A Report by the National Rivers Authority. Water Quality Series, September 1990. London, pp. 128). This information provides an approach to model phycotoxin release process. This probability for toxin production and release is used to derive an explicit formula for toxin concentration in water. This formula predicts the appearance of the peak toxicity in water between 3 and 6 months from the beginning of population growth. The peak toxin concentration in water and the time of its occurrence depend on environmental conditions and the toxin release function. The logistic equation with resources depletion is used to describe population development. The explicit model makes it possible to be calibrated, and assumptions about probability distributions being validated in light of laboratory experiments and field observations.