A biotope landscape model for prediction of semi-natural vegetation in Denmark

The work presented is part of a research effort, addressing the development of biological concepts for assessing the quality of Danish terrestrial biotopes. The aim of the study has been to develop a spatial model describing impacts of agricultural land use on natural and semi-natural terrestrial biotopes. Approaches in other countries fall into two main categories, broad scale, nation-wide models and detailed models across minor study areas. In this paper, we present an operational model capable of working at sufficient detail to assess impacts in spatial detail while at the same time covering a broader region. Based upon a classification of plant communities found within natural and semi-natural areas in Denmark a Biotope Landscape Model was developed and implemented into a geographic information system (GIS). The work included compilation of an Ecotope Map as a basis for the prediction of spatial distribution of the vegetation at three aggregation levels — 10 main types, 31 sub types and 130 plant communities. For model implementation, a large project area was chosen covering a range of characteristic landscapes in Denmark. Testing against vegetation samples shows convincing predictions for main types (87% correct) and sub types (59%), while predictions at plant community level was found unreliable (28%). Evaluation results indicate the potentials of GIS-based ecological models as tools in landscape planning.