Managed forests and migratory bird populations: evaluating spatial configurations through simulation

We developed a simulation model of forest succession in managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) short-leaf pine (Pinus echinata) plantations to explore factors that influence temporal variability in avian richness. We simulated 16 unique landscapes through a full harvest rotation (i.e. 25 years from planting to harvest). In the model, Neotropical migrant birds colonized tree stands based on habitat parameters such as vegetation type, stand size and configuration, and amount of edge. The model predicted species richness and abundance for each stand and across the landscape. Results demonstrated how stand size, stand configuration, and habitat fragmentation may play a substantial role in landscape suitability concerns for Neotropical migrant birds. An intermediate level of landscape fragmentation appeared to decrease variation in total bird abundance and to provide greater overall species richness, the latter an important consideration when the concern lies with optimizing multiple species management.