Have missing markets for ecological goods and services affected modelling of terrestrial C and N fluxes?

Using the literature on modelling of C and N fluxes through cropland and aggregate semi-natural/natural terrestrial (ASNNT) ecosystems for the period 1991–2002, in conjunction with estimates of total economic value for both systems, we illustrate how missing markets for ecological goods and services might have biased the research output in favour of croplands. Using the results of Costanza et al. [Nature 387 (1997) 253], we can estimate that the total economic value for cropland is US$0.128 trillion (1012) per year compared to US$10.491 trillion for ASNNT ecosystems. Fitting trendlines to the research output data, we show that this 82-fold difference in value is accompanied by an average of twice as much study (1.17–2.48 range) for the ASNNT ecosystems group. Through a basic analysis, we suggest that at least three times as much study for ASNNT ecosystems over cropland was justified between 1991 and 2002.