The intensity of a coffee rust epidemic is dependent on production situations

To gain a clearer understanding of conditions conducive to the development of coffee rust and improve disease control, we monitored the development of rust epidemics in 73 plots in Honduras, over 1–3 years depending on the case, focusing on coffee tree characteristics, crop management patterns, and the environment. A simple correspondence analysis was used to show that a link could be found between certain production situations and the intensity of coffee rust epidemics. Local characteristics specific to each plantation were particularly well linked to the intensity of coffee rust epidemics, whereas regional factors such as rainfall appeared to be of secondary importance. The yield and the number of leaves of the coffee trees were positively linked to epidemic development. Soil pH and fertilisation were negatively associated with epidemic development. Shade, when it did not limit yield, probably affected the microclimate in such a way that coffee rust incidence increased. Altitude was a serious constraint in disease development. These links were illustrated by a segmentation tree, which helped to define risk domains and rationalise coffee rust control. It also provided an understanding of how intensifying Arabica cultivation, through its effects on yield and soil acidification, increased the risk of a serious coffee rust epidemic occurring.