Modeling the combined effect of nutrients and pyrene on the plankton population: Validation using mesocosm experiment data and scenario analysis

A new integrated model that includes a hydrodynamic model coupled with a contaminant fate and effect sub-model and an ecological sub-model is presented and validated using data from mesocosm experiments. The experiments were carried out in the Isefjord (Denmark) and include the combined effects of nutrients and pyrene addition on the lower trophic levels of bacteria, zooplankton and phytoplankton. The model was able to correctly represent the main dynamics observed in the mesocosms during the 11 days of the experiment and thereby confirmed that it is possible to represent short-term changes in the system with a simplified food-web model on a small spatial and temporal scale. Finally, the validated model was used to carry out a scenario analysis to investigate the effects of a contaminant pulse at different pyrene concentrations and different release timings. Results showed that the ecosystemʹs vulnerability to a pyrene pulse depends on the initial condition of the system. Stronger biomass reduction was observed when the pulse was released during the zooplankton bloom. Conversely, when the pulse was added at low biomass and before the bloom, the system showed a tendency to behave non-linearly.