Temporal stability of vegetation indicators of wetland condition

Vegetation indices are widely employed to evaluate wetland ecological condition, and are expected to provide sensitive and specific detection of environmental change. Most studies evaluate the performance of condition assessment metrics in the context of the data used to calibrate them. Here we examined the temporal stability of the Florida Wetland Condition Index (FWCI) for vegetation of depressional forested wetlands by resampling sites in 2008 that were previously sampled to develop the FWCI in 2001. Our objective was to determine if FWCI, a composite of six vegetation-based metrics, provides a robust measure of condition given inter-annual variation in environmental conditions (i.e., rainfall) between sampling periods. To that end, we sampled 22 geographically isolated wetlands in north Florida that spanned a wide land use/land cover intensity gradient. Our results suggested the FWCI is robust. We observed no significant paired difference in FWCI across or within land use categories, and the relationship between FWCI in 2001 and 2008 was strong (r2 = 0.88, p < 0.001). This was despite surprisingly high composition change. Mean Jaccard community similarity within sites between years was 0.30, suggesting that most of the herbaceous taxa were replaced, possibly because of different antecedent rainfall conditions or sampling during different phenological periods; both are contingencies to which condition indices must be robust. We did observe some evidence of convergence toward the mean in 2008, with the fitted slope relating 2001 and 2008 FWCI scores significantly below one (0.63, 95% CI = 0.53–0.73). The most variable FWCI component metric was the proportional representation of obligate wetland taxa, suggesting that systematic changes may have been induced by different hydrologic conditions prior to sampling; notably, however, FWCI computed without this component still exhibited a slope significantly less than 1 (0.72, 95% CI = 0.61–0.88). Moreover, there was evidence that species lost from reference sites (higher condition) were replaced by taxa of lower floristic quality, while species lost from agricultural sites (consistently the lowest condition land use category) were replaced by species of higher quality. A significant positive association between FWCI and the ratio of coefficients of conservatism (CC) of species lost to those gained suggests some overfitting in FWCI development. However, despite modest evidence of overfitting, FWCI provides temporally consistent estimates of wetland condition, even under conditions of substantial taxonomic turnover.