Dynamics of Chinaʹs regional carbon emissions under gradient economic development mode

Regional economic development in China is extremely uneven, which leads to the variation of the status quo and development trend of carbon emissions in different regions, and thus has a huge impact on the construction of the future carbon trading market, in particular the allocation of emission reduction targets. In this article, we adopt a spatial econometric approach to analyze the spatial characteristics of Chinaʹs regional carbon emissions under its gradient economic development mode. Results indicate that carbon emissions show strong spatial dependence and convergence across regions. Specifically, carbon emissions of different regions in China are characterized by club convergence, as the countryʹs gradient developing mode has enhanced the spatial agglomeration effects. Furthermore, we analyze the evolving trends of regional emission shares, and build a basic framework for the allocation of regional emission reduction targets in Chinaʹs future carbon emissions trading market.