Modelling the effect of temperature, carbon dioxide, water activity and pH on growth and histamine formation by Morganella psychrotolerans

A mathematical model was developed to predict growth and histamine formation by Morganella psychrotolerans depending on temperature (0–20 °C), atmosphere (0–100% CO2), NaCl (0.0–6.0%) and pH (5.4–6.5). Data from experiments with both sterile tuna meat and Luria Bertani broth was used to develop the mathematical growth and histamine formation model. The expanded Logistic model with a growth dampening parameter (m) of 0.7 was used as primary growth model. A primary model for histamine formation during storage was obtained by combining the expanded Logistic growth model with a yield factor (YHis/CFU). 120 maximum specific growth rate (µmax)-values were generated for M. psychrotolerans and used to model the combined effect of the studied environmental parameters. A simple cardinal parameter type secondary model was used to model the effect of the four parameters on µmax. The maximum population density (log Nmax) was correlated with log (YHis/CFU) and a simple constrained polynomial (quadratic) secondary model was developed for the effect of the environmental conditions on these model parameters. The developed model describes the effect of initial cell concentrations, storage conditions and product characteristics on histamine formation. This is a significant progress compared to previously available models for the effect of storage temperature only.