Uncertainty factors for chemical risk assessment: human variability in the pharmacokinetics of CYP1A2 probe substrates

A 100-fold uncertainty factor is used to derive acceptable daily intakes for compounds causing thresholded toxicity. The 10-fold factor for human variability can be further subdivided into two factors of 100.5 (3.16) to allow for toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics. The validity of the human kinetic subfactor has been analysed in relation to CYP1A2 metabolism using published in vivo pharmacokinetic parameters selected to reflect chronic exposure (metabolic and total clearances and area under the plasma concentration–time curve: CLm, CL and AUC) and acute exposure (the peak plasma concentration, Cmax). The variability in CYP1A2 activity in healthy adults, based on data after oral and intravenous dosage (CLm, CL and AUC), ranged from 34 to 42%. The variability in Cmax was 21%. The default kinetic factor of 3.16 would cover at least 99% of the healthy adult population, assuming that the data were log-normally distributed, but would give lower protection for some subgroups (pregnant women at term, healthy elderly, patients with liver disease), and was inadequate for neonates. This analysis of in vivo kinetic data for CYP1A2 substrates illustrates the importance of quantifying human variability in specific metabolic pathways, and of identifying potentially susceptible subgroups of the human population, in order to determine the scientific validity of uncertainty factors.