• Title of article

    Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown

  • Author/Authors

    Harvey ، نويسنده , , David I. and Leybourne، نويسنده , , Stephen J.، نويسنده ,

  • Issue Information
    دوفصلنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2015
  • Pages
    18
  • From page
    262
  • To page
    279
  • Abstract
    We propose methods for constructing confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend that have asymptotically correct coverage for both I(0) and I(1) processes. These are based on inverting a sequence of tests for the break location, evaluated across all possible break dates. We separately derive locally best invariant tests for the I(0) and I(1) cases; under their respective assumptions, the resulting confidence sets provide correct asymptotic coverage regardless of the magnitude of the break. We suggest use of a pre-test procedure to select between the I(0)- and I(1)-based confidence sets, and Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that our recommended procedure achieves good finite sample properties in terms of coverage and length across both I(0) and I(1) environments. An application using US macroeconomic data is provided which further evinces the value of these procedures.
  • Keywords
    Level break , Stationary , Trend break , Locally best invariant test , Confidence sets , Unit root
  • Journal title
    Journal of Econometrics
  • Serial Year
    2015
  • Journal title
    Journal of Econometrics
  • Record number

    2129686