Conceptual modeling of the impacts of climate change on karst geomorphology in the UK and Ireland

British and Irish karst environments are of geomorphological and ecological conservation value. As illustrated by a simple conceptual model, future climate change is likely to influence three key aspects of karst geomorphology, i.e. hydrology, dissolution rates and the operation of other geomorphological processes such as mass movements. However, the response of an individual karst area to these changes will depend on the magnitude and nature of regional climate change, as well as the unique geomorphological characteristics of the area. In order to illustrate the range of potential responses, five contrasting karst areas are investigated in further detail (i.e. the Burren, Cuilcagh, the Mendip Hills, Assynt and the Yorkshire Dales). For each area, an assessment is made of the sensitive aspects of the geomorphology and detailed climate predictions given for the 2020s and 2050s (using the UKCIP 1998 scenarios downscaled to the bioclimatic classes identified by the MONARCH project). All areas show an increase in winter effective rainfall, and all but the Mendip Hills show at least a modest rise in mean annual effective rainfall. The Mendip Hills karst is predicted to experience a decline in mean annual effective rainfall (up to 54%) producing an allied reduction in dissolution rates and a possible increase in vulnerability of cave deposits. Turloughs in the Burren area are likely to experience more pronounced drying out in summer, but given the minor predicted alterations in effective rainfall in the Yorkshire Dales, fragile tufa deposits are unlikely to be seriously affected. The impacts of future climate change on British and Irish karst areas need to be considered alongside the already extensive human impacts in these areas, but are unlikely to cause major geomorphic change, although impacts on sensitive landforms and allied biota may have negative effects on conservation.