Estimating the consequences of land-use changes on butterfly diversity in a marginal agricultural landscape in Sweden

Summary nment of farming with the resultant increase in forest cover is one of the major threats to semi-natural grasslands in marginal agricultural areas. In Sweden, the loss of semi-natural grassland is a serious nature conservation problem since it is one of the most species-rich habitats. In this study, the consequences of grassland abandonment and afforestation on butterfly diversity and butterfly dispersal costs are estimated and used to compare three different future land-use scenarios for a marginal agricultural landscape in Sweden. Based on previous butterfly surveys on grasslands in the area, a relationship between land-use type and butterfly diversity was established. By comparing land-use maps of different scenarios, the number of suitable habitat patches and total suitable habitat patch area with low, medium and high butterfly diversity could be estimated. To obtain an indication of possible fragmentation effects, a least-cost analysis was used to compare travel costs of the butterflies between suitable habitat patches for the different scenarios. The results show that different land-use scenarios affect butterfly diversity and travel costs differently. In the extreme case scenario of cessation of full-time farming and a reduction in part-time farming, nearly all valuable butterfly habitats will vanish, since the most species-rich habitats lie in the periphery of the settlement and are expected to be abandoned and afforested first. If, on the other hand, grassland management is less reduced the effect of abandonment on butterflies depends very much on which areas continue to be managed. To preserve the most important grasslands for butterflies an active management strategy for the whole study area would be needed. While it seems relatively easy to identify the areas most important to conserve from a butterfly diversity perspective, it will be more difficult to find an optimal spatial solution that also minimises dispersal costs for butterflies.