Statistical and diagnostic evaluation of the ADMS-Urban model compared with an urban air quality monitoring network

The present study examines the behaviour of the ADMS-Urban air quality forecasting model in predicting dispersion of traffic-related pollutants in urban areas. The study has been carried out in Ravenna (NE Italy), a medium-sized town where pollution produced by vehicle traffic accounts for most of the emissions. ADMS-Urban performances have been assessed through statistical analysis, by comparing carbon monoxide concentrations (vehicle traffic tracing pollutant) estimated by the model with concentrations measured by stations of the air quality monitoring network. Although the correspondence of values estimated by ADMS-Urban with measured values turns out to be satisfactory, the study shows that the model tends to produce an underestimated value compared with the actual situation, and identifies a corrective method that makes it possible to improve the relevant performances. Furthermore, the diagnostic analysis highlights that the model performances depend upon some meteorological parameters.