Determination of the inter-annual and spatial characteristics of the contribution of long-range transport to SO2 levels in Seoul between 2001 and 2010 based on conditional potential source contribution function (CPSCF)

In this paper, we introduce a new method to estimate the change in mean mixing ratio of a target species at a receptor site due to the contribution of the long-range transport (CLRT). We applied our method to determine inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in the CLRT of SO2 in Seoul, a major megacity in northeast Asia, during the period from 2001 to 2010. The major potential source areas of SO2 for the 2001–2010 period were located in East China according to the potential source contribution function (PSCF) maps. The CLRT of SO2 in Seoul was estimated to range from 0.40 to 1.03 ppb, which accounted for 8–21% of the ambient mean SO2 mixing ratio in Seoul. The inter-annual variations of estimated CLRT of SO2 was well correlated with those of the total emissions in China during the period of 2001–2008 (R = 0.85). We found that both local emissions from around Seoul and long-range transport from East China, especially the Shandong peninsula, affected the SO2 mixing ratio in Seoul throughout the decade of study. The CLRT of SO2 in Seoul increased after 2007 even though the total emissions of SO2 by China have been decreasing since 2006. The CLRT of SO2 in Seoul was high in spring and winter, which can be attributed to enhanced SO2 emissions in East China during these seasons and a dominant westerly wind. The CLRTs of SO2 accounted for 15, 11, 4, and 12% of the seasonal mean SO2 mixing ratio in spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively. The uncertainty ranged from 24 to 62% of the estimated CLRT values.