Historical evaluation of vehicle emission control in Guangzhou based on a multi-year emission inventory

The Guangzhou government adopted many vehicle emission control policies and strategies during the five-year preparation (2005–2009) to host the 2010 Asian Games. This study established a multi-year emission inventory for vehicles in Guangzhou during 2005–2009 and estimated the uncertainty in total vehicle emissions by taking the assumed uncertainties in fleet-average emission factors and annual mileage into account. In 2009, the estimated total vehicle emissions in Guangzhou were 313 000 (242 000–387 000) tons of CO, 60 900 (54 000–70 200) tons of THC, 65 600 (56 800–74 100) tons of NOx and 2740 (2100–3400) tons of PM10. Vehicle emissions within the urban area of Guangzhou were estimated to be responsible for ∼40% of total gaseous pollutants and ∼25% of total PM10 in the entire city. Although vehicle use intensity increased rapidly in Guangzhou during 2005–2009, vehicle emissions were estimated to have been reduced by 12% for CO, 21% for THC and 20% for PM10 relative to those in 2005. NOx emissions were estimated to have remained almost constant during this period. Compared to the “without control” scenario, 19% (15%–23%) of CO, 20% (18%–23%) of THC, 9% (8%–10%) of NOx and 16% (12%–20%) of PM10 were estimated to have been mitigated from a combination of the implementation of Euro III standards for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and heavy-duty diesel vehicles and improvement of fuel quality. This study also evaluated several enhanced vehicle emission control actions taken recently. For example, the enhanced I/M program for LDVs was estimated to reduce 11% (9%–14%) of CO, 9% (8%–10%) of THC and 2% (2%–3%) of NOx relative to total vehicle emissions in 2009. Total emission reductions by temporary traffic controls for the Asian Games were estimated equivalent to 9% (7%–11%) of CO, 9% (8%–10%) of THC, 5% (5%–6%) of NOx and 10% (8%–13%) of PM10 estimated total vehicle emissions in 2009. Those controls are essential to further vehicle emission mitigation in Guangzhou required by the new National Ambient Air Quality Standards.