On the self-organized critical state of Vesuvio volcano

The catalogue of volcanic earthquakes recorded at Vesuvio (1972–1993) is shown to be complete for events with magnitude enclosed between 1.8 and 3.0. Such a result is converted in significant fractal laws (power laws) relating the distribution of earthquakes to the distribution of energy release, seismic moment, size of fractured zone and linear dimension of faults. The application of the Cantor dust model to time sequence of Vesuvio seismic and eruptive events allows the determination of significant time-clustering fractal structures. In particular, the Vesuvio eruptive activity shows a double-regime process with a stronger clustering on short-time scales than on long-time scales. The complexity of the Vesuvio system does not depend on the number of geological, geophysical and geochemical factors that govern it, but mainly on the number of their interconnections, on the intensity of such linkages and on the feed-back processes. So, all the identified fractal features are taken as evidence that the Vesuvio system is in a self-organized critical state i.e., in a marginally stable state in which a small perturbation can start a chain reaction that can lead to catastrophe. After the catatrophe, the system regulates itself and begins a new cycle, not necessarily periodic, that will end with a successive catastrophe. The variations of the fractal dimension and of the specific scale ranges, in which the fractal behaviour is found to hold, serve as possible volcanic predictors reflecting changes of the same volcanic process.