The activity of Vesuvius in the next millennium

The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the forecasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index (VEI)=4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a decreasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourth millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI=5) might occur.