A numerical model for the mechanical behavior of Popocatépetl volcano (Central Mexico)

To understand the mechanical behavior of Popocatépetl volcano, we developed a numerical model using the finite element method. The numerical model was constructed based on the topography of the volcanic edifice. The displacement field was generated by assuming rising magma as a force applied to the nodes of the surface of a simulated conduit. Our theoretical results indicate that under an ascending vertical pressure along the conduit, the slopes of the volcano would tend to move away from the crater. Maximum radial (9.2 × 10− 3 m) and vertical (4.1 × 10− 2 m) displacements occur along the SW–NE direction in agreement with the direction of extension during the 1995 volcanic eruption. Areas of maxima displacements are in concordance with: (1) the spatial hipocentral distribution and the direction of principal strain axes P (pressure) and T (tension) obtained by focal mechanisms solutions of local seismicity; and (2) field measurements previously performed at Popocatépetl.