Verification of the MM5 model using radiosonde data from Madrid–Barajas Airport

Vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor and wind field were traditionally obtained from radiosonde observations for the analysis of mesoscale phenomena. The scarce amount of radiosonde data available and the inadequate temporal and spatial resolution, motivated the development of prognostic soundings derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Their use should be subject to previous quality verification of model outputs. This work is focused on the evaluation of the NCAR/Penn State Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model MM5 outputs under snow precipitation conditions in the Sierra de Guadarrama (Madrid). A comparison of forecasted vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor density and wind field with those observed by the Madrid–Barajas Airport rawinsonde was carried out. The results showed that the MM5 vertical profiles were able to represent thermodynamic conditions during winter precipitation events. Correlation coefficients of temperature and water vapor were close to 1 at both times. Wind field forecast was also accurate since wind direction and wind speed correlation coefficients were statistically significant for a 95% confidence. It was also found that MM5 simulations remained accurate after 24 h from the initialization.