Subsidence of Askja caldera 2000–2009: Modelling of deformation processes at an extensional plate boundary, constrained by time series InSAR analysis

Many calderas in the world show long-term unrest in the form of elevated rates of deformation and seismicity, related to pressure changes and magma movements within their magmatic plumbing systems. We present new observations of the style of deformation at the Askja caldera, Iceland, since 2000, using interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images (InSAR) acquired by the Canadian RADARSAT-2 satellite. When combined with previously acquired detailed geodetic observations, by various techniques, we obtain an overview of Askjaʹs behaviour through more than four decades. The combined dataset reveals that, during this non-eruptive period, Askja continuously subsides at a rate of 2.5–3 cm/yr in 2000–2009, somewhat lower than the ~ 5 cm/yr rate inferred for the 1983–1998 period. This behaviour of Askja is evaluated and compared to those of other restless calderas. The wrapped interferograms show three main features: (1) concentric fringes depicting subsidence in the centre of the main Askja caldera, (2) oval fringes elongated along the rift portraying subsidence and (3) subsidence in an area north of the Vatnajökull glacier. The average line-of-sight (LOS) velocity from ground to satellite was used as input for inverse modelling, of a deflating pressure source beneath the caldera, embedded in a homogeneous, elastic half-space. Two different source geometries were tested: a point pressure source and a horizontal penny shaped crack. The concentric fringes centred in the Askja caldera are best fit by a point source located at 65.05°N 16.78°W, at a depth of 3.2–3.8 km with a volume decrease of 0.0012–0.0017 km3/yr from 2000 to 2009, consistent with previous studies. Provisional 2D FEM models including structural complexities in the crustal layers indicate that the tectonic setting of Askja plays an important role in the continuous, long-term high subsidence rates observed there. In order to fully understand the cause and effects of the complicated tectonic setting we encourage the use of a more realistic rheological model of the area, which could lead to reinterpretation of previous model results.