Estimation of eruption source parameters from umbrella cloud or downwind plume growth rate

We introduce a new method to estimate mass eruption rate (MER) and mass loading from the growth of a volcanic umbrella cloud or downwind plume using satellite images, or photographs where ground-based observations are available. This new method is compared with pre-existing models and documented mass eruption rate given in the research literature. We applied the method to five well-studied eruptions (Mount St. Helens, 1980; Redoubt, 1990; Pinatubo, 1991; Hekla, 2000 and Eyjafjallajِkull, 2010) and to five less well-documented eruptions (Kliuchevskoʹi, 1994; Okmok, 2008; Kasatochi, 2008; Sarychev Peak, 2009 and Bezymianny, 2012). The mass eruption rate is obtained by estimation of the radius of the umbrella cloud with time or by estimation of the width of the downwind plume with distance from the volcano. The results given by the new method show a more fully characterized MER as a function of time than do the results given by pre-existing methods, and allow a faster, remote assessment of the mass eruption rate, even for volcanoes that are difficult to study. The method thus may provide an additional important path to the estimation of source parameters and the forecasting of ash cloud propagation. In addition, in cases where numerous methods are available, use of the method yields new, independent measures of mass eruption rate, hence an ability to estimate uncertainty in mass eruption rate, which could be used in probabilistic estimations of ash cloud propagation.