Investigation of meteorological drought characteristics in Fars province, Iran

Drought is a lack of moisture in nature, consistent or unnatural. The term consistent refers to a state of shortage, and unnatural refers to the deviation from an index of the regional natural condition. The objective of this research was to examine and forecast the intensity, duration, frequency and extent of droughts in Fars province. For this purpose, and in order to survey droughts in the province, a standard precipitation index (SPI) was determined as a selective index, considering its capacity to facilitate accurate positional analysis between various regions of the drought extent. For this, precipitation data within the same statistical period of 32 years (1968 to 1999) in 5 time scales of 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months from some 26 stations located within and out of the province were used, and the trends were assessed by using a time series analysis. At the next stage, RUN theory and Markov Chain were combined, on this basis to create transition probability and a steady matrix, and then the conditions of long term droughts in the province in terms of number and duration were forecast for the subsequent 10 years. The characteristics of the extent of drought were determined by using the Geographic Information System (GIS) with the help of geo-statistical methods. The results of the drought station surveys for the mentioned characteristics showed that the highest drought intensity (in terms of % deviation from normal) was at the Gozoon station and the longest duration of drought in months was at the Polkhan station; droughts both of long duration and with the highest frequency during the statistical period were observed at the Jahrom and Darshahy stations. The map of the extent of droughts showed higher intensity in the south and central regions of the province, while northern parts of the province were less sensitive to the effects of droughts. Also, the results of the maps of drought duration in various periods showed that droughts in the south of the province were of higher intensity and longer duration than elsewhere.