A stochastic model for generating disturbance patterns within landscapes

A stochastic model for generating disturbances in landscapes that interfaces with geographic information systems (GIS) is presented. The model operates on a lattice (rectangular array of points) using a space–time Markov process, which gives a stochastic simulation of growth patterns in terms of parameters of the local region. The model generates disturbance patterns on the landscape based on user-defined inputs of the total area disturbed and the number of patches to be disturbed. The model is developed in a C ++ software package named “TDsimulator” (“Terrain Disturbance Simulator”) which can be used to predict changes in landscape cover under a variety of stochastic scenarios. The software comprises a set of GIS routines that collectively yield the disturbance patterns. A demonstration of the stochastic model is provided for simulating fire behaviour in a forested landscape. The numerical examples illustrate the total disturbance impact under different initial conditions and scenarios.