Fossil site prediction using geographic information systems (GIS) and suitability analysis: The Two Medicine Formation, MT, a test case

Fossil site discovery has traditionally been the result of educated guesswork followed by systematic searching of terrain. This study approached the issues of fossil site identification by looking at key variables in a GIS setting. The data were analyzed to create a predictive model for finding fossils, thus facilitating the process of fossil discovery and saving time and money. Geospatial variables believed to be most useful for finding fossils were examined and ranked on a scale from 1 to 4, with 4 being the most advantageous score for finding fossils. Weighted sum addition combined the layers to create a suitability surface. Field testing and subsequent analysis showed the model accurately predicted areas of high, medium, and low fossil likelihood. Field observations and additional site data led to model refinements and increased resolution of fossil density distribution. The final model explained a statistically significant 90% of fossil density variation in the Two Medicine Formation.