On the causes of major Baltic inflows —an analysis of long time series

Conditions for life in the deep water of the Baltic Sea are strongly influenced by inflows of highly saline and oxygenated water from the North Sea. These events – termed major Baltic inflows (MBI) – have episodic character, and are the only mechanisms by which the central Baltic deep water is renewed. Although the cycle of water renewal is well documented, certain meteorological and oceanographic processes determining it are either not very well understood or even partly unknown. on the data set of major inflows during the present century, long time series of relevant variables from the Baltic Sea itself (salinity, sea level), its drainage area (river runoff, precipitation), the whole Baltic region (air temperature) and from the North Atlantic and Europe (sea level pressure) are analyzed using statistical methods. Characteristic variations in the relevant meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic variables before and during major events are calculated in order to identify conditions favouring or preventing such events. Baltic inflows are characterized by two phases: (1) high pressure over the Baltic region with easterly winds followed by (2) several weeks of strong zonal wind and pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. Major events may occur when only one of these is well developed, the probability of strong events is high if both phases are well developed and closely spaced in time. Variations in river runoff to the Baltic obviously have a greater impact on the occurrence of major events then hitherto supposed. The decreasing frequency and intensity of major inflows since the mid-1970s and the complete absence of such events from February 1983 to the beginning of 1993 is explained by increased zonal circulation linked with intensified precipitation in the Baltic region and increased river runoff to the Baltic. Possible anthropogenic impacts on changes in occurrence of major inflows due to river runoff regulations are indicated. The results should suggest to investigate more intensively the causes of major Baltic inflows by using coupled atmosphere/ocean/land surface models.