Estimating the sustainable lobster (Panulirus ornatus) catch in Torres Strait, Australia, using an age-structured stock assessment model

The ornate rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) is distributed across Torres Strait between Australia and Papua New Guinea and supports the most important commercial fishery to Islanders in the region. The long-term sustainability of the fishery is of importance not only to local island communities but also to the bilateral relationship between the two countries. In this paper, we developed an age-structured fishery model to assess the current stock status and estimate the long-term sustainable catch. The model was fitted to catch statistics and survey-based population estimates through a weighted maximum likelihood approach. Natural mortality was estimated at 0.732 yr−1, and fishing mortality ranged from 0.19 to 0.65 yr−1 from 1989 to 2005. The maximum sustainable yield was estimated at about 640 tonnes whole weight with a corresponding fishing mortality of 0.5 yr−1. A stock–recruitment model was established based on outputs of the stock assessment model. To obtain the maximum sustainable yield, spawning stock should be maintained at 120×104 lobsters. The lobster spawning stock has been fished down below this level twice since 1989, in 1999 and 2002, and was higher than this level in 2004 and 2005. These results suggest that the Torres Strait lobster stock is not over-fished and that the current harvest strategy is likely to maintain the stock at or above the level that would support the maximum sustainable yield if the current cap on fishing effort remains in place.