Larval connectivity of harbours via ocean currents: A New Zealand study

Non-indigenous marine species (NIMS) are likely to be introduced into harbours by ballast water discharge or hull fouling, and then spread by natural means in the nearshore/shelf circulation. Reanalysis currents from the Australian Bluelink modelling project are used with particle-tracking to estimate the potential dispersal kernels for major New Zealand ports. A random walk term is added to the particle-tracking algorithm to account for missing variability in the numerical model currents. With few data to validate the model, the choice of added diffusivity is made by comparing simulated dispersal with observed dispersal of Global Program drifters. Histograms of the dispersal times between the ports are computed, along with estimates of the 10−1 and first percentile dispersal times, which are taken as proxies for the minimum dispersal time between the ports. The 10−1 percentile times range from 1 day (e.g., Bay of Islands to Whangarei) to several months (Tauranga to Chatham Islands). We identify eight geographical regions, based on the coastal currents and present kernels for a representative port in each region, along with tables of the 10−1 and first percentile dispersal times for all ports. The regions are: (1) northeast coast of the North Island (influenced by the East Auckland Current), (2) east coast of the North Island (East Cape Current), (3) west coast of the North Island (West Auckland Current/Taranaki Bight circulation), (4) Cook St (circulation in Cook St), (5) east coast of the South Island (Southland Current), (6) west coast of the South Island (Westland Current), (7) Fiordland (Subtropical Front/Southland Current), and (8) the Chatham Islands.