Evidence of change in the winter mixed layer in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Sea-surface temperatures in the Northeast Pacific Ocean show a warming trend, and salinities show a declining trend, in data collected over the last 60 years. These changes combine to reduce the density of the surface layer over a large area of the Northeast Pacific. The declining surface density changes the energetic requirements for the formation of a surface mixed layer, and observations at Ocean Station Papa indicate that mid-winter mixed layer depths are showing a marked decline. The reduction in the depth of penetration of the winter-time mixed layer should reduce the nutrients entrained into the upper ocean each winter. Observations suggest that near surface nutrient levels are declining at Papa but remain well above levels that might inhibit productivity. However, at present the productivity of large phytoplankton appears to be limited by iron supply which is thought to be mainly from the atmosphere. A shallower mixed layer depth could increase the concentration of iron in this layer. The increase in iron would increase the utilization of nitrate, mainly by diatoms, and new production and the f ratio would increase.