Inter-annual variability in the thermal structure of an oceanic time series station off Ecuador (1990–2003) associated with El Niño events

Previously unpublished data (1990–2003) from a marine station located 20 km off the coast of Ecuador (Station La Libertad, 02°12′S, 080°55′W) are employed to investigate oceanic inter-annual variability in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, and its relation to the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. La Libertad is the only time series station between the Galapagos Islands and the South American coast, the region most affected by El Niño events (El Niño 2 region, 0–5°S, 90°W–80°W). Although configured and serviced differently, station La Libertad can be looked at as an eastern extension of the TAO/TRITON monitoring system, whose easternmost mooring is located at 95°W, 1550 km offshore. This study of El Niñoʹs impact on the thermocline and its relationship to sea surface temperature revealed anomalies in the thermocline at station La Libertad some 2–4 months before their appearance at the sea surface. Inter-annual variability, namely quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillations, accounts for roughly 80% of the total variance in temperature anomalies observed in the water column at station La Libertad. incidence in both phase and amplitude of these inter-annual oscillations explains the strength of El Niño events in the water column off La Libertad. We further show that anomalies in heat content appear 8–9 weeks earlier at 140°W in the equatorial Pacific (6550 km away from the coast) than at the coast itself. The arrival of El Niño, which has important regional social consequences as well as those for local fisheries, could therefore be predicted in the sub-surface waters off Ecuador by using these anomalies as a complementary index. In addition, the speed of the eastward propagation of these El Niño-associated anomalies’ suggests the possible participation of higher-order baroclinic mode Kelvin waves and associated interaction processes in the eastern Pacific, which should be further investigated.