A new, mechanistic model for organic carbon fluxes in the ocean based on the quantitative association of POC with ballast minerals

In simulation studies of the oceanʹs role in the global carbon cycle, predicting the depth-distribution for remineralization of particulate organic carbon (POC) is of particular importance. Following Sarmiento et al. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7 (1993) 417), most simulation models have the power-law curve of Martin et al. (Deep-Sea Research 34 (1987) 267) for this purpose. The Martin et al. curve is an empirical fit to data, most of which is from shallow floating sediment traps. Using such a fit implies that all the information necessary for prediction is contained in the carbon flux itself, so that the organic-carbon flux FOC(z) at any depth z can be predicted from the flux of organic carbon FOC(z0) at some near-surface depth z0. Here, we challenge this basic premise, arguing that fluxes of ballast minerals (silicate and carbonate biominerals, and dust) determine deep-water POC fluxes, so that a mechanism-based model of POC flux must simultaneously predict fluxes of both POC and ballast minerals. This assertion is based on the empirical observation that POC fluxes are tightly linked quantitatively to fluxes of ballast minerals in the deep ocean. Here, we develop a model structure that incorporates this observation, and fit this model to US JGOFS EqPac data. This model structure, plus the preliminary parameter estimates we have obtained, can be used to explore the implications of our model in studies of the ocean carbon cycle.