Ocean warming and seabird communities of the southern California Current System (1987–98): response at multiple temporal scales

Declines in ocean productivity and shifts in species assemblages along the West Coast of North America during the second half of the XXth century have been attributed to the concurrent warming of the California Current. This paper addresses changes in the avifauna off southern California between May 1987 and September 1998, in response to shifting water mass distributions over short (<1 year) and long (interannual) temporal scales. More specifically, our research focuses on the relative importance of distinct foraging guilds and species assemblages with an affinity for warm and cold water. Over the long term, the avifauna off southern California shifted from a ‘high-productivity’ community typical of eastern boundary upwelling systems, to a ‘low-productivity’ assemblage similar to those inhabiting the subtropical gyres. Overall seabird abundance decreased; the relative importance of cold-water seabirds that dive in pursuit of prey declined; and warm-water species that feed at the surface and plunge to capture prey became more numerous. These community-level changes are consistent with the northward shifts in species ranges and the declining ocean productivity anticipated as a result of global warming. However, the response of individual taxa with an affinity for warm-water and cold-water conditions has been more difficult to predict, due to differences in species-specific responses to ocean warming. The three cold-water species investigated (Sooty Shearwater Puffinus griseus, Cassinʹs Auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, and Rhinoceros Auklet Cerorhinca monocerata) decreased in abundance during this study. On the other hand, only one of the six warm-water species considered (Pink-footed Shearwater, Puffinus creatopus) increased significantly over the long term. Yet, the warm-water Leachʹs Storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa) increased between 1987 and 1993, and then declined between 1994 and 1998. Moreover, cross-correlations between seasonally adjusted anomalies of bird abundance and ocean temperature revealed that seabirds responded differently to ocean warming over intermediate (1–8 years), and long (8–12 years) time scales. We hypothesize that this nonlinear behavior of seabird populations in response to ocean warming is caused by the juxtaposition of distinct behavioral and demographic responses operating at different temporal scales.