Linear elastic fracture mechanics explains the past and present evolution of the Aegean

Geologically the deformation in the Anatolian–Aegean region has been dominated by two processes: the propagation of the North Anatolian fault associated with the extrusion of the Anatolian plateau, and the north–south stretching of the Aegean. We model GPS data in the context of this understanding. Localised deformation zones are represented by dislocation elements which extend from the base of the lithosphere to the locking depth at the base of the seismogenic layer. Unlike other GPS interpretations our models incorporate geological and seismological constraints to provide a robust description of the present-day deformation of the Anatolian–Aegean region. We then show that the present-day deformation observed by GPS today is consistent with the continuation of the geological processes that started in the Tertiary. Our approach is also consistent with the lithosphere preserving long-term elastic strength and with the concepts of linear elastic fracture mechanics applying at a large scale.