A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp (Penaeus notialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort (EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996–2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). e northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002–2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index (R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic processes seem to dominate and determine the primary production and the white shrimp stock productivity as well.