Prediction, scenarios and insight: The uses of an end-to-end model

A major function of ecosystem models is to provide extrapolations from observed data in terms of predictions or scenarios or insight. These models can be at various levels of taxonomic resolution such as total community production, abundance of functional groups, or species composition, depending on the data input as drivers. A 40-year dynamic simulation of end-to-end processes in the Georges Bank food web is used to illustrate the input/output relations and the insights gained at the three levels of food web aggregation. The focus is on the intermediate level and the longer term changes in three functional fish guilds – planktivores, benthivores and piscivores – in terms of three ecosystem-based metrics – nutrient input, relative productivity of plankton and benthos, and food intake by juvenile fish. These simulations can describe the long term constraints imposed on guild structure and productivity by energy fluxes over the 40 years but cannot explain concurrent switches in abundance of individual species within guilds. Comparing time series data for individual species with model output provides insights; but including the data in the model would confer only limited extra information. The advantages and limitations of the three levels of resolution of models in relation to ecosystem-based management are:(1) rrelations between primary production and total yield of fish imply a “bottom-up” constraint on end-to-end energy flow through the food web that can provide predictions of such yields. onally defined metrics such as nutrient input, relative productivity of plankton and benthos and food intake by juvenile fish, represent bottom-up, mid-level and top-down forcing of the food web. Model scenarios using these metrics can demonstrate constraints on the productivity of these functionally defined guilds within the limits set by (1). isons of guild simulations with time series of fish species provide insight into the switches in species dominance that accompany changes in guild productivity and can illuminate the top-down aspects of regime shifts.